COMMENTARY | The most asked question on the campaign trail this election cycle seems to be if Texas Congressman Ron Paul will run as an independent or third party candidate if he fails to earn the Republican nomination. The more important question for the Republican Party to ponder isn't if Paul will run independent, but does Paul even have to run as an independent to divide the vote in a general election?
Voters who support Paul for the Republican nomination do so in a desire to change the role of government, end preemptive wars and drastically cut federal spending, among others. These loyal voters are very independently minded and very dedicated to the goal to change government. If they do not believe a candidate will fulfill their campaign promises to reduce the federal government they won't vote for them, period.
One example of how voters cast their vote with or without Paul's organization in the contest can be seen in the Florida primary. Paul's decision to skip Florida in favor of other upcoming contests like Maine was built on the understanding that Florida would be all risk and no reward as a winner-take-all primary having multiple costly media markets.
Without Paul campaigning in Florida, not advertising on Florida TV stations and not hiring a single campaign worker in the state, one would expect a terrible finish there. A vote percentage not unlike Rick Perry's finish in New Hampshire, a state he ignored and got less than 1 percent of the vote -- only 1,766 votes. Or perhaps a fate like Jon Huntsman's in Iowa, a state he openly ignored and ended up with just 739 votes. Paul got 7 percent of the Florida vote total without ever campaigning there -- well over 100,000 votes.
It is also noteworthy that in New Hampshire more registered Democrats wrote in a vote for Paul (2,273 write-in votes) than Perry got in total votes. No other Republican candidate drew that many votes from across the aisle in New Hampshire.
Even if Paul does not run as a third party candidate, his voters can still tip the balance of some battleground states in a general election, and this movement is almost unstoppable. Even if Paul endorsed another candidate, his loyal supporters would carefully evaluate that candidate and decide for themselves if he or she is worthy of their vote. After all, that is what led them to Paul's candidacy in the first place -- careful study of politics and political record.
It's looking more like the only choice voters have is between Paul or Barack Obama. Obama would win the general election if anyone other than Paul is the Republican nominee because they could not carry the Libertarian-Republican voter bloc, and Paul would win the general election if he is the Republican nominee because in a general election he would draw in the most independent voters and voters from across the aisle.
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